Become an expert forecaster

by Hansi Mehrotra

21st June 2016

Secular cycle, long-term business cycle, short-term business cycle – which one should you be watching?

According to former hedge fund manager Raoul Pal – all three.

“The economy is subject to ebbs and flows of business, usually driven by the credit, inventory and investment cycles. It is these cycles that have caused booms and busts for thousands of years.”

The trick in business cycle analysis is to recognize where you are in all three cycles, and be able to read the signals they provide, says Pal in this exclusive presentation.

Raoul Pal, writer of elite macroeconomic and investment research service The Global Macro Investor, Goldman Sachs alum and former fund manager of GLG Partners Global Macro Hedge Fund, shares how he developed his unique probabilistic framework using the business cycle.

The framework, which effectively turns the study of economics on its head, can be used by anyone from portfolio manager to home investor to forecast markets with a good level of probability – and profit from knowledge.

“The framework is simple – no complex theoretical models or massive spreadsheets.”

Watch the video here –